Attribution quality
Which users appear across paid, organic and field marketing, and how should that overlap be interpreted?
Awareness · Digital & Paid Marketing
Paid Acquisition Attribution and Budget Optimization
I analyzed overlap between paid acquisition, organic traffic and field marketing to understand each channel’s contribution. I then examined first-order timing, repeat purchase and acquisition costs to compare budget options and identify where performance was constrained.
01
Questions behind the analysis
User quality
How quickly do users place their first order, and how often do they order again?
Funnel constraints
Is performance limited by exposure costs, downloads, first-order conversion or channel overlap?
Budget decisions
What changes when budget increases at a fixed acquisition cost, or cost falls at a fixed budget?
02
Attribution and user quality
I compared registration source, first-order source and the time between the two events. This helped distinguish paid contribution from overlap with organic and field acquisition, rather than treating every shared user as entirely attributable to one channel.
I also compared repeat ordering after the first order. In the global cohort shown below, the paid/organic overlap group had a 56% seven-day reorder rate, compared with 34% for the organic-only group. This describes cohort behavior, rather than proving an incremental paid effect.
56%Paid / organic overlap · 7-day reorder rate
34%Organic-only users · 7-day reorder rate
Attribution rules, timing and reorder analysis · Click to enlarge
03
Channel overlap and monthly trends
I compared ASA brand and non-brand terms, Google, Weibo, Tencent and other channels across months, separating organic overlap from overlap with field marketing. This made it easier to identify where reported acquisition needed closer review.
Monthly overlap diagnosis and strategy review · Click to enlarge
Channel overlap breakdown from January to May · Click to enlarge
04
Funnel and budget scenario modeling
I broke acquisition down into exposure, downloads and first orders, then compared two scenarios against the same deduplicated acquisition target: more budget at a fixed cost ceiling, or lower acquisition cost within the existing budget.
| U.S. scenario | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Planned standalone paid FTUs | 3,237 | 3,237 |
| Modeled standalone acquisition cost | 17 | 15 |
| Modeled budget | 54,383 | 47,916 |
Figures above are planning scenarios from the analysis, not achieved campaign results. FTU refers to users completing their first order; deduplication follows the internal analysis definitions.
U.S. ASA and media funnel assumptions and budget scenarios · Click to enlarge
05
Video creative for paid campaigns
Three video creatives used in paid promotion, presented alongside the acquisition analysis.